Akinwumi Adesina
An economist, Paul Alaje, has backed the President of the African Development Bank (AfDB), Akinwumi Adesina, over his recent comments on Nigeria’s economic decline, despite denials from the Presidency.
Alaje who said that Adesina’s presentation took into account the relative value of the dollar and macroeconomic indicators, stressed that those who interpreted Adesina’s comments in absolute terms missed the key economic context.
Speaking on the Monday edition of Channels Television’s Politics Today, Alaje said Adesina’s analysis is grounded in macroeconomic reasoning. “To hold such a position as AfDB President, he must have taken into cognisance the relative value of the dollar, inflation, and poverty levels,” he explained
His view was contrary to that expressed by the Special Adviser to the President on Information and Strategy, Bayo Onanuga, whom he said was not entirely wrong in quoting Nigeria’s historical GDP per capita figures, but added that the debate should go beyond statistics.
“Yes, Mr Onanuga is also not wrong when you look at the figures absolutely. But that’s only part of the story. What matters more is: what could that income buy? What was the inflation rate? What was the exchange rate? These are the deeper questions,” Alaje said.
“We need to be mindful of the fact that more Nigerians are living in poverty today than in 1960. The numbers are clearer. It’s not a matter of who is right or wrong; what matters is how we can work together to improve the country’s economic reality.”
“The GDP in Nigeria, from available information according to Bayo Onanuga, was around $100 per capita in 1960. Today, it is about $800. But I do not fault Mr Adesina because, in economics, we do not take such figures at face value,” Alaje said.
“When you look at the economic context of 1960, $100 then had a significantly higher purchasing power than $800 today. Economists are very careful not to compare figures in absolute terms. What matters is what that money could buy then compared to now.
“The dollar at that time was based on the value of gold. In today’s terms, that $100 would be worth far more. So, when Dr Adesina makes his point, he is speaking from an informed position as an economist,” he said.
Recall that Adesina had during a keynote address at the 20th-anniversary dinner of Chapel Hill Denham, said Nigeria’s GDP per capita had dropped from $1,847 in 1960 to $824 in 2023. He used this data to argue that living standards had declined.
But Onanuga countered this claim, stating that the quoted figures were inaccurate. He said Nigeria’s GDP in 1960 was $4.2 billion, and the per capita income, for a population of 44.9 million, was $93—not $1,847.
“Our country’s GDP did not rise remarkably until the 1970s. In 1980, per capita income reached $880 and rose to $2,187 in 1981 before dropping again,” Onanuga added.
He criticised GDP per capita as a sole measure of well-being, arguing that it fails to reflect access to healthcare, education, infrastructure, and the scale of Nigeria’s informal economy.
“No objective observer can claim that Nigeria has not made progress since 1960,” he said. “We now have more schools, better road networks, more medical facilities, and near-universal access to mobile phones and digital services.”
