Nigerian Economy: Boomers and Busters

Nigerian Economy: Boomers and Busters

By Tessy Igata

boom and bust econFrom the beginning, the Nigeria Economic Summit has been tailored to impact certain changes and policies to move the nation forward. The Nigeria Economic Summit Group (NESG) Director General, Frank Nweke II stated in a report two years ago when asked to articulate some of the recommendations that have been adopted by the government at previous summits that the government was not obliged to adopt any recommendation made by any group outside government circle. The import of this is that the federal government is not duty-bound to implement the recommendations of the Summit organized by a non-governmental organisation like the NESG.

The resolutions at the summits adopted by the government have been said to cut across four broad areas; Agriculture, governance, infrastructure and the real and service sectors of the economy. However these sectors are suffering more in the area of decadence with a lot of loopholes.  A number of reforms and policies have been implemented at various levels and by various governments  but all fell to naught.

In 2005 when the 11th summit was held, the Infrastructure Development Agency was recommended and then adopted in 2008 by the government through what was called the Infrastructure Concession Regulatory Commission (ICRC) which was headed by former Director General of the NESG Mansur Ahmed. Despite the agency’s establishment the problem of infrastructure decay still persists.

At the same 11th summit, delegates came to a resolution that the Power Holding Company of Nigeria (PHCN) needed restructuring because of the epileptic power supply which has crippled the industrial sector. Small and Medium Scale Enterprises have also become non- functional due to constant power outage arising from long years of electricity infrastructure decay, and yet again based on the recommendations at the summit the government created the Generation  Transmission and Distribution Companies, but this proved not the solution to the  problem. Then, the issue of deregulation was brought to the fore as a means of solving the power problem.

The National Integrated Power Project (NIPP) was initiated by the Obasanjo administration as an intervention in the power sector; all these were to pave way for private sector to be involved in the power sector through privatization. These projects all suffered major setbacks even though the NIPP is still being considered as the way out. And now states and Local Council Development Areas, LCDAs, are to be given autonomy to generate power within their zones.

The 2007 summit saw the recommendation of the adoption of Public Private Partnership (PPP) for the development of infrastructure in the country which the Federal and Lagos state governments have adopted. But this has yet suffered another major setback as succeeding governments have engaged in the violation of PPP agreements, plus the niggling issue of financial constraints.

Bi-Courtney which is the major pioneer of PPP projects in the aviation sector as well as in the building of highways within the country has suffered a lot of challenges due to inconsistency on the part of the government coupled with the federal government’s non-adherence to agreements with the private sector.

Shamsuddeen Usman, former Minister of National Planning in reaffirming the president’s statement at the 2011 NES 17 summit said he was pleased with what government has done with summit recommendations and that the key recommendations were formally discussed and approved by the Federal Executive Council (FEC) in December 2010. He noted that one key outcome of the previous summits was the setting up of Policy Commissions meant to ease the formulation and implementation of summits’ recommendation.

President Jonathan could also be recalled as stating at the 17th summit being the first since his assumption of office, that his administration also took steps to ensure that the Federal Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDAs) implemented those aspects of the recommendations made at the Summit that relate to their mandates and also render necessary reports. He firmly reassured Nigerians that the recommendations of the summit will also be appropriately tabled before the FEC.

Though one major outcome of previous summits are the Policy Commissions, which were established to facilitate the formulation and implementation of summits’ recommendation, in particular the technical inputs received through the Policy Commissions have played a critical role in the emergence of a number of government policies and reform measures.

The summit in 2012 focused on some of the key issues that impede effective governance and economic transformation, with the theme: “Deregulation, Cost of Governance and Nigeria’s Economic Prospects”.

It would be recalled that the chairman of the NES Mr. Foluso Philips said at the 2012 summit that, “whilst 2011 summit had serious issues about the cost of governance in absolute terms, and value for money, governance was recognised as an additional challenge. The introduction of a Performance Management paradigm, an initiative, which the NESG shares in its introduction, is now becoming a new way of life for our Ministers at the Federal level,” the benefit of which he said the country is still to witness through the rewards and sanctions that become applicable for performance as we wait on the State governments to take a cue from this Federal initiative.

Also “The summit in 2011 recommended the implementation of a massive integrated road and rural infrastructure and development program across the whole country… whilst these huge national project recommendations were acknowledged by government, the reality in execution of what we did, does not even begin to describe the surface of expectations. And certainly not at the scale that can meet the intentions of how this initiative could jump-start the Nigerian economy”.

Though Nigeria is said to not be able to achieve her vision 2020 goal of being the 20th largest economy in the world according to NESG report, but Nigeria’s economic prospects seem not to be bleak as many would have thought. Foluso Phillips the NESG chairman said, “It started on a very rough note for the Nigerian economy with a collective lock down by the nation of a magnitude never witnessed in civilian times and it all centred on the issue of deregulation of the downstream petroleum sector.

But in its wake, it educated and aroused the nation’s awareness of petroleum subsidy issues, it helped to identify the main players in this subsidy game and started the process of turning off the tap of corruption that surrounded it, at the moment the jury is still out on how that past is going to be cleaned up. However, in the midst of all this, another major issue was brought to the fore, which forms the second aspect of our theme at this year’s summit which is the cost of governance”.

VIEWS ON SUMMIT RECOMMENDATIONS

Divergent views were however expressed as regards summit recommendations. At the NES 17 summit, Sam Ohuabunwa, the immediate past chairman of NESG said that, what the government is seen to be doing is half measure. As there is no proper implementation process, but that the setting up of a monitoring committee by the government is a welcomed development and a step in the right direction, since there is no proper implementation process at least it would help the government monitor its progress.

Anya O. Anya who was also a former chairman of the NESG stated in a report that what “we see as government’s inadequate response could be ascribed to bureaucracy in the process of decision making which passes through various levels but that if it means a matter of re-educating the people then that should be done.

This lays credence to the fact of the president’s speech at the last summit in 2012 that implementation processes were deliberately delayed by political considerations even when people were convinced beyond doubts that the policies were meant for the development and benefit of all”.

QUESTIONS TO BE ANSWERED

There arose three fundamental questions at NES 2012 needing answers, according to the NESG. But one of the three questions on “Nigeria’s economic prospects”, which has always seemed bleak and having a demeaning outlook may be redeemed with the country’s rallying around to making agriculture the basis for a major economic renaissance, even as past government policies (Green Revolution, 1980 and Operation Feed the Nation) on agriculture were short-lived.

A fundamental question was put forth by the NESG chairman on how we can diversify our economy away from oil. Even though, he said, we have plenty of oil; we still have a problem if nobody is buying.

Sam Ohuabunwa  in a report also asked a similar question when he said, “Does Nigeria need to diversify its economy? It sure does, and badly and urgently too! For several years, this need has been noted but we paid lip service to finding a solution. Now the threat to our only economic source; Crude oil is becoming very real. Oil has been found in very many other nations and soon, supply will exceed demand, bringing down prices. Second, our major crude oil customer the United States of America has found alternative source, its own shale gas and so we may have our oil without a customer to buy. Third, the world is frantically moving to renewable energy sources like solar and wind and investing heavily searching for other alternatives like bio fuel. Soon, hydrocarbons may become discredited and unattractive. The reality is imminent”!