Oil falls slightly ahead of expected OPEC+ output increase

crude oil

Oil falls slightly ahead of expected OPEC+ output increase

Oil futures slipped slightly in thin holiday trading on Friday, as the market looked ahead to this weekend’s OPEC+ meeting and the likelihood that member countries will decide to raise output.

Brent crude futures settled down 50 cents, or 0.7%, at $68.30 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was down 50 cents, or 0.75%, at $66.50 just before 1300 EDT (1700 GMT). Trade was sparse due to the U.S. Independence Day holiday.
Brent settled about 0.8% higher than last Friday’s close and WTI was around 1.5% higher.
Eight OPEC+ countries are likely to make another oil output increase for August at a meeting on Saturday in their push to boost market share. The meeting was moved forward a day to Saturday.
“If the group decides to increase its output by another 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) in August, as expected, for the fourth successive month, oil balance estimates for the second half of the year will be reassessed and will suggest accelerated swelling in global oil reserves,” said PVM analyst Tamas Varga.
He added that investors seem to be in wait-and-see mode, getting ready to react to OPEC’s move while also watching for implications of U.S. President Donald Trump’s massive package of tax and spending cuts, which was set to be signed into law at a ceremony at the White House on Friday.
Meanwhile, uncertainty over U.S. tariff policy was back in the spotlight as the end of a 90-day pause on higher levies approaches.
Separately, Barclays said it had raised its Brent oil price forecast by $6 to $72 a barrel for 2025 and by $10 to $70 a barrel for 2026 on an improved demand outlook.
REUTERS