Oil Barrels
Oil prices gained Monday, as investors kept a close eye on a meeting of major crude producers, amid hopes for a decision to include Nigeria and Libya in a production-cap deal orchestrated by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.
Should OPEC push through the production cap on Nigeria and Libya, it will mean a slight drop in the Nigeria’s revenue profile. But there is hope that getting Nigeria and Libya to comply may slightly push up price which might vitiate any loss in revenue as a result of production cap.
In recent trading, light, sweet crude futures for delivery in September CLU7, +0.35% rose by 33 cents, or 0.7%, to $46.10 a barrel in the Globex electronic session. September Brent crude LCOU7, +0.48% on London’s ICE Futures exchange tacked on 42 cents, or 0.9%, to $48.73 a barrel. Oil prices fell 2% on Friday.
The advance came after energy ministers at the meeting said the output-cap agreement could be extended beyond next year’s first quarter if needed, according to multiple reports. Nigeria also committed to taking part in cuts if it reaches a production level of 1.8 million barrels a day, according to a Dow Jones Newswires report.
Earlier, Saudi energy minister Khalid al-Falih said the coalition’s compliance with the production deal was strong, but he also said there were laggards whose issues had to be dealt with “head on,” a Wall Street Journal report noted.
Global prices have been in the doldrums for three years as supply has outpaced demand, sending stockpiles to record levels. Even though the OPEC-Russia curtailment deal has been in force since January, global inventories have barely fallen. That’s resulted in heavy pressure remaining on prices.
Beyond continued growth in U.S. oil production, with total output reaching its highest level in two years, some speculate the reason why the OPEC deal hasn’t been effective is because Nigeria and Libya have seen their own output rebound faster than expected. They are the two OPEC members exempt from the deal, but there has been a growing voice among producers that these African nations should also be included.
However, it remains to be seen if capping Nigerian and Libyan output at current levels will make a material difference because the move wouldn’t take barrels off the market — just keep additional ones away.
“Unless we see demand pick up pace, imposing a production cap on Nigeria and Libya will only be a ‘feel-good’ move, but not helpful in readjusting the supply-and-demand dynamic in the short run,” said Gao Jian, a SCI International energy analyst.
OPEC Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo, however, recently outlined a rosier picture, saying the rebalancing is “bound to accelerate in the second half.”
Some analysts have predicted there will be a lot of talk at the meeting, but not any concrete moves.
