Peter Obi, the Labour Party 2023 presidential candidate, was, the other day, involved in a scary confrontation in Benin, Edo State, where gunmen attacked his convoy at the residence of former Edo State Governor, Chief John Odigie-Oyegun. Oyegun was also the former National Chairman of the ruling APC. The attack happened on February 24, 2026, after Obi attended a political event, and it is being seen as a possible assassination attempt. The attack caused damage to vehicles in his convoy but luckily, Obi escaped unhurt and no one was seriously injured. The attack on Obi is an indication that he is the most important candidate in this political dispensation.

The African Democratic Congress (ADC), of which Obi is the possible presidential flag bearer, has condemned the attack, saying that it is a threat to public safety and democracy. Also, the Rule of Law and Accountability Advocacy Centre (RULAAC), condemned an online assassination threat against Obi, calling on the authorities to investigate it. The incident is still under investigation, and it is unclear who was behind the attack. The Edo State Government has reportedly directed the police to look into it. A young man has been arrested as the brain behind the attack.

Peter Obi is being targeted because his chances of winning the 2027 presidential election are high if the election is not rigged in favour of the ruling APC. His chances are being debated. Some see him as a strong contender, citing his strong support among younger voters and urban populations, as well as his impressive performance in the 2023 elections, where he garnered over six million votes.

Obi’s supporters believe he has the momentum and broad coalition of supporters across the country. He has also been praised for his integrity, efficiency and inclusivity, which sets him apart from other candidates.

However, some point out challenges such as his southern origin, which may affect his chances in the north. But this is a waning challenge as the harsh economic condition has made many people change and not mind where a good candidate who could improve the lot of the people comes from.

Aisha Yesufu, an activist and social crusader believes that Obi has better chances in 2027 than in 2023, citing his growing followership and the ravaging hardship levied on the populace by the Tinubu administration.

Peter Obi’s chances across different zones of the country are quite promising, especially in the South-East and South-South, where he enjoys very strong support. In 2023 elections, he dominated in Anambra, Abia, Ebonyi, and Imo states, and made significant inroad in Lagos and Abuja FCT, reflecting his strong urban and youth appeal.

In 2027, in the South-East, Obi is expected to perform well, given his stronghold in the region, with 84 percent support in 2023, indicating a strong presence. Coming to the South-West, Obi pulled strong weight, particularly in Lagos, the supposed stronghold of Tinubu and the APC.

In the North-Central, Obi outperformed Atiku Abubakar, indicating growing presence. In the North-West and North-East, where Atiku Abubakar maintains stronghold, Obi’s proposal to serve one term has boosted his profile in the north. Many people believe Obi can win the 2027 elections without a coalition, citing his popularity across the zones.

The attack on Obi in Benin, Edo State is reportedly the latest in a series of attacks and threats against him with some alleging that it was an assassination attempt. The Edo State Government attributes the incident to internal party turmoil but others blame the Government for orchestrating the violence.

If Peter Obi becomes president in 2027, he plans to prioritize security, education, and poverty reduction. He has vowed to cut costs and shun corruption, ensuring that funds are channeled into critical sectors. Some of the key initiatives of Obi include tackling insecurity and violence across the country; improving access to quality education, implementing policies to alleviate poverty, fighting corruption and promoting transparency, and focusing on local manufacturing and small businesses.

Obi has also expressed commitment to promoting strong party opposition and ending party-defection by elected officials. He is open to coalition talks if they focus on Nigeria’s pressing problems. The only obstacle towards Obi’s winning the presidency in 2027 is if he fails to secure the opposition presidential ticket, in the light of the fact that he might be competing with Atiku Abubakar, who is also vying for the opposition presidential ticket.

Safeguarding Peter Obi is a challenge to the security agencies. The police, the DSS and other security agencies should guard and protect Obi and ensure that he does not get into harms way.

• Onyekakeyah, a former member of The Guardian Editorial Board, is a public affairs commentator and a Daily Query columnist.